Why Packs Are a Risky Investment in MLB The Show 25

Ripping packs in MLB The Show 25 is one of the most exciting and MLB The Show 25 Stubs tempting parts of the game—but it’s also one of the most dangerous ways to spend your stubs. While the thrill of potentially pulling a high-rated Diamond card is undeniable, the reality is that packs are more of a gamble than a guaranteed path to team improvement. For most players, they offer poor value compared to buying specific cards on the Marketplace.

Here’s a breakdown of why packs are a risky investment and what you should consider before spending your hard-earned stubs.

1. Low Odds of Pulling Diamonds
The biggest reason packs are risky is the low probability of pulling top-tier cards. In a standard pack:

Diamond player odds: ~2% or less (1 in 50)

Gold player odds: ~10% (1 in 10)

Silver, Bronze, or Common odds: Over 80%

This means that the vast majority of packs will contain cards that are either not useful for your team or not worth anywhere near the pack’s purchase price. You might open 20 packs before seeing a single Diamond, and by then, you’ve spent 30,000 stubs—enough to buy a guaranteed elite player directly from the Marketplace.

2. Stubs Are Better Spent on Certainty
Packs are inherently random. Even if you do pull a Diamond, it could be a low-value one that doesn’t help your lineup or collections.

For example:

You might spend 7,500 stubs on five packs and pull one Gold player worth 2,000 stubs and four silvers worth 100 each. That's a 3,000-stub return at best—less than half your investment.

That same 7,500 stubs could buy a proven 85-87 OVR Diamond hitter who would make an immediate impact.

Buying specific players gives you full control over your roster and avoids the guesswork.

3. You Can’t Sell the Excitement
Many players buy packs for the thrill of opening them. But that excitement doesn't translate into real progress unless you're extremely lucky.

Think of packs like scratch-off lottery tickets:

Occasionally someone wins big, but most people lose more than they gain.

Over time, relying on luck leads to disappointment and wasted resources.

In MLB The Show, your stub balance is precious. Use it strategically instead of buy MLB The Show 25 Stubs rolling the dice.